BFO 7010 Business Forecasting sample papers, module by module

Reviewed by Edgar Pennington, MBA · Business Forecasting · Thomas Edison State University · Free custom samples in 24–48h

BFO-7010 teaches forecasting as a process that starts with a business decision and ends with a number someone can plan around. The samples here follow one composite propane distributor’s monthly deliveries through every method in the course, each compared with the same held-out year, and close with a full forecasting plan.

Send the exact assignment or rubric from your classroom and a custom sample written to it lands in 24 to 48 hours, the first one free. BFO-7010 is TESU’s Business Forecasting course. It covers what can be forecast and how to set up a forecasting task, simple benchmark methods and accuracy measures, judgmental forecasting, time series regression, decomposition, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models and dynamic regression, ending with a forecasting plan for a real organization. Searches like "bfo 7010 module 3 assignment example", "BFO7010 sample paper", and "BFO-7010 module samples" land on this page.

What BFO-7010 is really about

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos’s Forecasting: Principles and Practice is the text, with R and RStudio as the software, and the course runs eight modules. Module 1 studies forecasting itself, Module 2 the simple methods every model must beat, Module 3 judgmental forecasting and Module 4 time series regression.

The second half moves through decomposition in Module 5, exponential smoothing in Module 6, ARIMA in Module 7 and dynamic regression in Module 8. Two live sessions fall in the third and fifth weeks, and the final project asks students to create and execute a forecasting plan for an organization of their choice.

What BFO-7010’s assessments ask for

The grade splits as follows: written assignments (six) 40 percent, discussions (eight) 25 percent, the forecasting plan 25 percent and two live events 10 percent. Opening discussion posts run 400 to 500 words with replies of 200 to 300, and the written assignments are mostly textbook exercises whose data are linked inside the assignment, with answers explained, not only computed.

Where students lose points in BFO-7010

Marks go on accuracy measured on training data, methods applied to series they do not suit (a trend method on seasonal data), model orders copied from software output without explanation, forecasts made with future values of predictors presented as genuine forecasts and plans that never say what decision the forecast serves.

The BFO-7010 drawers

Module 1

BFO-7010 Module 1 assignment example

Discussion: a composite Hammonton propane distributor sorts what it can forecast well, winter delivery volume, from what it cannot, wholesale propane prices, separates the forecast from the sales goal and the delivery plan, and replies to classmates on hospital staffing and on why a good forecast can still miss. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 2

BFO-7010 Module 2 assignment example

Written assignment: a composite Hammonton propane distributor holds out 2024, forecasts it with four benchmark methods fitted to 2019 to 2023, finds the seasonal naive method far ahead with a MASE of 0.97, and checks its residuals for bias and autocorrelation before using it as the yardstick for later models. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 3

BFO-7010 Module 3 assignment example

Discussion: a composite propane distributor with no history for a new agricultural route uses a Delphi panel of dispatchers, sales staff and a grower, forecasting by analogy from a similar route and three scenarios, guards against anchoring and optimism, and replies on adjusting statistical forecasts and on sales force bias. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 4

BFO-7010 Module 4 assignment example

Written assignment: the composite propane distributor regresses monthly gallons on a trend and eleven month dummies and then on a trend and heating degree days, finds the weather model better by adjusted R-squared, AIC and test RMSE, compares forecasts made with actual and normal weather and finds residual autocorrelation left for later modules. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 5

BFO-7010 Module 5 assignment example

Written assignment: the composite propane distributor splits five years of monthly gallons into a 2x12 moving-average trend, additive seasonal indices and a remainder, compares additive and multiplicative indices, traces the largest remainder to a warm December and forecasts 2024 by extending the seasonally adjusted series and adding the season back. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 6

BFO-7010 Module 6 assignment example

Written assignment: the composite propane distributor fits four exponential smoothing methods to 2019 to 2023, shows simple smoothing and Holt's trend method collapsing on a seasonal series, finds additive and multiplicative Holt-Winters close on accuracy with the multiplicative form nearer the 2024 total, and explains what each smoothing parameter says about the series. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 7

BFO-7010 Module 7 assignment example

Written assignment: the composite propane distributor seasonally differences its monthly gallons, reads a lag-1 autocorrelation of 0.28 and a lag-12 spike of -0.40, fits ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)12 and then adds a seasonal moving-average term, passes the Ljung-Box test only with the second model and forecasts 2024 with an RMSE of 26.8. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Module 8

BFO-7010 Module 8 assignment example

Final project: the composite propane distributor's forecasting plan sets 2025 monthly gallons as the input to driver and supply planning, ranks seven methods on the 2024 test year, adopts a regression on trend and heating degree days with AR(1) errors, forecasts 5.03 million gallons for 2025 with intervals and cold and warm winter scenarios, converts the January forecast to drivers and sets a monthly tracking routine. Full sample paper, read it free.

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Your classroom shows something else?

Thomas Edison State University revises courses; module counts and deliverables shift between terms. Send what your classroom shows and the desk matches it exactly.

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Using a BFO-7010 sample the right way

Send your module’s exercises or data, and a first custom sample comes back free inside 24-48h. Use it to see how each answer is explained beside its number, then run your own series through the same steps.

How these samples are written

Every BFO-7010 sample here works the same composite monthly series, so each method’s error on the held-out year can be set beside the ones before it, and every figure was computed from the series rather than estimated.

BFO-7010 questions, answered

What textbook does BFO-7010 use?

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos’s Forecasting: Principles and Practice, second edition, a free online text, with R and RStudio.

Does BFO-7010 have live sessions?

Yes. Two synchronous events, in the third and fifth weeks, together count 10 percent of the grade.

What is the BFO-7010 final project?

A forecasting plan for an organization you choose, forecasting sales, a budget or another figure used in a decision, worth 25 percent.